The next recall will be bigger. Will yours be smaller?

Recalls reached their largest scale in years in 2025, while regulators keep moving their deadlines. A company that prepares for the deadline will pass the audit, but may not be ready for the recall. The companies that come through best can say, within hours, exactly what is affected and what is not.

Published on
November 12, 2026

The one question that decides the cost

It usually starts with a phone call. A lab result is out of range, a supplier flags an ingredient lot, or a customer finds something in a pack. Before anyone talks about root cause, the leadership team needs one answer: which products, which lots, which pallets, which customers?

How quickly and how precisely you can answer decides most of what happens next. A precise answer means you recall one batch from three customers. A vague one means you recall a month of production from every shelf, just to be safe.

That answer is not produced during the crisis. It is produced, or not, weeks earlier, in thousands of ordinary transactions: a receipt at the dock, a quality hold, a machine alarm, a pallet built and shipped.

Recalls are getting bigger, not just more frequent

Sedgwick's recall index counted 3,295 US recalls across all sectors in 2025, covering close to 858 million units. Affected units rose 26% over 2024, and food recalls under the FDA reached a nine-year high.

The real change is scale. Each recall now tends to touch more product, more customers and more markets. That follows from how supply chains work today: shared ingredients, contract manufacturing, mixed pallets and several tiers of distribution. One bad input can reach dozens of finished products.

Cost follows scale. An industry study led by the Grocery Manufacturers Association put the average direct cost of a food recall at about $10 million, with nearly a quarter above $30 million. That is before lost sales and brand damage, which can last for years after the product is off the shelf.

The deadline is the wrong reason to act

Regulation is clearly heading towards traceability, but the dates keep moving:

  • US food: the FDA's Food Traceability Rule (FSMA 204) requires records for high-risk foods within 24 hours of a request. Enforcement now starts in July 2028, two and a half years later than first planned.
  • US pharmaceuticals: under the Drug Supply Chain Security Act, small pharmacies are exempt from full electronic tracing until November 2027.
  • India: in January 2025 the trade ministry dropped its own track-and-trace system for medicine exports and handed authentication to the health ministry, under the Drugs Rules. QR codes on top drug brands and on active ingredients still apply.
  • European Union: the General Product Safety Regulation has applied since December 2024, with stronger recall duties. Digital Product Passports arrive sector by sector up to 2030.

A leadership team that plans around these dates will keep postponing. But recalls do not wait for deadlines, and large buyers are not waiting either. Many already write traceability requirements into supplier contracts, ahead of the law.

The 24-hour rule is still a useful benchmark. If a regulator can ask for your records within a day, your biggest customer will expect the same. Compliance gives you a file you can hand over. The business needs a trace it can act on.

Speed is expected. Precision is the advantage.

In a well-known pilot, Walmart cut the time to trace a pack of sliced mangoes back to its farm from almost seven days to 2.2 seconds. That proved fast tracing is possible. It did not make speed the whole answer.

A fast answer that is incomplete is dangerous. If it is too narrow, unsafe product stays on the shelf. If it is too wide, you destroy good stock and alarm customers who were never at risk. The value lies in a trace that is fast, complete and precise enough to act on.

That precision depends on three things:

  1. Every movement recorded as it happens. Receipts, transfers, packing and shipping are captured at the moment of work, not typed in afterwards.
  2. Every level linked. An ingredient lot links to the batches it went into, then to cases, pallets, shipments and customers.
  3. Quality and operations in the same history. Holds, deviations and machine alarms sit beside stock movements. Knowing what was already contained is how you shrink a recall.

The third is where most traceability tools fall short. They sit beside the ERP and are fed after the fact. They can tell you where product went, but not what happened to it along the way.

What it looks like when traceability is part of operations

We tested this on a scenario modelled on a biscuit manufacturer in North Africa, running warehouse, maintenance, quality and traceability on PIPRA, with Nija as the traceability layer. Two things go wrong in the same week.

First, an oven drifts. A temperature sensor in one zone of the tunnel oven moves out of range. Maintenance gets a work order straight away. At the same moment, the packing exit puts a hold on everything that came off the line during the drift. That product never leaves the plant, so it never becomes part of a recall.

Trace Explorer timeline of the oven drift: the sensor breach, the warehouse hold and the maintenance work order, side by side
One event history, three departments. The oven sensor's breach (top row) puts the affected stock on quarantine hold in the warehouse (middle row). In the same minute, maintenance gets an alert and a work order (bottom row).

Then, a supplier flags an ingredient lot. A lot of hazelnut paste fails a test after it has already been used. A forward trace from that lot shows which finished batches used it, which pallets carry them, which warehouses hold them and which customers received them. The recall covers those batches and nothing else. Their labels move to quarantine, one pallet is returned from one distributor, the stock is destroyed and a corrective action is opened. A consumer who scans a pack from a recalled batch is told it has been recalled.

Forward trace of the suspect hazelnut-paste lot: received, used in production, shipped, returned and discarded
A forward trace of the suspect ingredient lot: 42 events, 11 lots and pallets, one supplier, one customer. The full trail runs from receipt through production and shipment to the customer return and destruction, and it was already recorded before anyone asked.
Genealogy Explorer recall simulation: one batch, its units, cases, pallet, shipment and distributor all marked affected
Before a recall is opened, a simulation shows exactly what it would reach: every unit, case, pallet, shipment and distributor downstream of one batch. Nothing else is touched. (Shown on a test company's finished-goods batch.)

No one rebuilt the trail from spreadsheets or emails, because it already existed. Warehouse, maintenance and quality all record into one event history as the work happens. Each entry is chained to the one before it, so the record cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

Five questions for your leadership team

  1. If a supplier flagged an ingredient lot this morning, how long until we could name every affected customer? Have we actually timed it?
  2. When did we last run a mock recall, and how much of it was done by hand?
  3. Could we tell which affected product was already on hold, or would we recall everything to be safe?
  4. Do our quality holds, machine alarms and stock movements sit in one record, or in three systems someone has to reconcile?
  5. Which of our largest customers already require traceability in their contracts, and could we meet that requirement today?

If any answer is "we're not sure", the size of your next recall is being decided by chance.

You can't always prevent a recall. You can decide how big it is.

No manufacturer can promise zero recalls. Every manufacturer can decide how ready it will be when one comes. That decision isn't made in the crisis room. It is made now, in how the plant, the warehouse and the quality team record their everyday work.

Nija is PIPRA's traceability layer. It is built into the same platform that runs warehousing, maintenance and quality, so the trail builds itself as the work is done. Nothing is reconstructed after the fact.

Find out where you stand. We'll run a mock recall on one of your products with your team and time it from first alert to the full customer list.

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